Will abortion swing the first post-Roe presidential election?

The Dobbs backlash could send an abortion provider to Congress.

By: - September 26, 2024 11:38 am

The U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women鈥檚 Health Organization in June 2022 ended federal abortion rights. (Photo by Sofia Resnick/States Newsroom.)

Editor鈥檚 note: This five-day series explores the priorities of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as they consider the upcoming presidential election. With the outcome expected to be close, these 鈥渟wing states鈥 may decide the future of the country.

7 States + 5 Issues That Will Swing the 2024 Election

Dr. Kristin Lyerly鈥檚 placenta detached from her uterus when she was 17 weeks pregnant with her fourth son in 2007. Her doctor in Madison, Wisconsin, gave the devastated recent medical school graduate one option: to deliver and bury her dead child. But she requested a dilation and evacuation abortion procedure, knowing it would be聽聽than being induced. And she couldn鈥檛 fathom the agony of holding her tiny dead baby.

But Lyerly鈥檚 doctor declined, giving her a direct window into the many ways Americans lack real choice when it comes to their reproductive health decisions. At the time of this miscarriage, Lyerly was getting a master鈥檚 degree in public health before beginning her residency. She was able to get a D&E at the same hospital by a different doctor. As an OB-GYN, she soon would learn how much abortion is stigmatized and limited throughout the country, but also regularly sought after and sometimes medically necessary, including among her many conservative Catholic patients in northeastern Wisconsin.

And then, on June 24, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court ended federal abortion rights, prompting states such as Wisconsin to resurrect dormant abortion bans from the 19th and 20th centuries. Lyerly鈥檚 job changed overnight. She stopped working as an OB-GYN in Sheboygan and moved her practice to Minnesota. She became a plaintiff in a聽聽being interpreted as an abortion ban, which has since been blocked.

When a congressional seat opened up in a competitive聽聽this year, the 54-year-old mother of four joined the聽聽of women running for office to restore reproductive rights, which this election cycle includes another聽聽and a聽. Lyerly鈥檚 decision to run is emblematic of the nationwide backlash against the Dobbs decision, which altered the reproductive health care landscape, with providers, patients and advocates turning to the ballot box to change the laws to restore and broaden access.

Wisconsin is among seven swing states expected to determine the country鈥檚 next president and federal leaders. And in many ways they鈥檙e being viewed as referendums on how much the right to have an abortion can move the needle in a tight presidential election.

鈥淲hat we鈥檝e seen in every election since the Dobbs decision is that abortion is at top of mind for voters 鈥 and it鈥檚 not just helping voters decide who or what to vote for. It鈥檚 actually a turnout driver,鈥 said Ryan Stitzlein, vice president of political and government relations at national lobbying group Reproductive Freedom for All. The group is聽in down-ballot races in conservative districts such as Lyerly鈥檚, buoyed by cash and momentum from Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris鈥.

Anti-abortion money is聽聽through the swing states, led by lobbying groups Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Women Speak Out PAC. Some of their messaging, adopted by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and many GOP candidates, often paints Democrats as champions of infanticide, focusing on the聽, those performed in the third trimester.

But aside from that rhetoric, many Republican candidates have been quiet on an issue that for years motivated their staunchest supporters.

SBA Pro-Life America declined an interview for this story but shared a press release outlining the聽trying to reach 10 million voters in Montana, 海角社区 and all of the battleground states except for Nevada. The group聽28 House candidates total this cycle, and six of them are in North Carolina. One of North Carolina鈥檚 endorsed candidates in a聽聽is Republican GOP challenger Laurie Buckhout, who does not mention her abortion stance on her聽and did not return a request for comment.

鈥淥ur field team is talking to persuadable and low propensity pro-life voters to urge them to cast their votes against the party that endorses abortion in the seventh, eighth and ninth months,鈥 said SBA national field team director Patricia Miles in the press statement.

But throughout this election cycle, polls in the swing states have shown bipartisan support for abortion rights, especially when聽. Voters in more than half of the states expected to determine the presidential winner have, to varying degrees, lost access to abortion. And abortion-rights activists across these states told States Newsroom they are determined to protect that access, or to get it back.

Arizona sees backlash after GOP upholds Civil War-era abortion ban

In Arizona, the Dobbs decision resurrected a Civil War-era ban that allowed abortions only to save a pregnant patient鈥檚 life.

Legislators repealed the law, but abortion-rights supporters fought for more certainty. This fall, Arizonans will vote on a聽that would protect access until fetal viability, around 24 weeks of pregnancy.

Fallout from a resurrected Civil War-era abortion ban and a citizen-led abortion-rights ballot measure have put the issue at the center of many critical races in Arizona. (Gloria Rebecca Gomez/Arizona Mirror)

Now, two of the judges who upheld the abortion ban 鈥 Justices聽聽鈥 are up for reelection, in races infused with national cash by groups such as RFA and Planned Parenthood. Also on the ballot is聽, which would give聽聽to state judges. The Republican-initiated measure has garnered controversy in part because it is retroactive to this year鈥檚 election, so if approved, any retention bids would be nullified even if the majority votes to unseat the judge.

Ballot organizers turned in more than 800,000 signatures, double the required number, and overcame opponents鈥櫬犅爐o qualify the abortion-rights ballot measure,聽. Abortion is legal up to 15 weeks of pregnancy, but there are聽聽that the聽聽would eliminate, such as a ban on any abortions sought for fetal genetic abnormalities and a聽聽from 2021 granting personhood status to fertilized eggs.

Recent deaths reignite controversy over Georgia鈥檚 abortion ban

This month, ProPublica聽on the deaths in 2022 of two Georgia women who suffered rare complications after they obtained mifepristone and misoprostol for early-term medication abortions. Both were trying to navigate a new state law that banned abortions at about six weeks of pregnancy and threatened medical providers with up to a decade in prison.

In one case, doctors at an Atlanta-area hospital refused for 20 hours to perform a routine dilation and curettage, a D&C, to clear the patient鈥檚 uterus when her body hadn鈥檛 expelled all the fetal tissue. In the other, a woman who had ordered the pills online suffered days of pain at home, fearful of seeking medical care. Both women left children behind.

Georgia鈥檚 law permits abortion if the patient鈥檚 life is at risk, but medical providers have said, tying their hands and threatening the health of patients who have high-risk pregnancies.

Their cases, which a state medical review committee found to be 鈥減reventable,鈥 have galvanized activists in the state.

Harris spoke at length about the women, Amber Nicole Thurman and聽, at a recent聽. She blamed their deaths on Georgia鈥檚 law, calling it 鈥渢he Trump abortion ban,鈥 because the former president appointed three justices聽聽would overturn Roe v. Wade.

鈥淭his is a health care crisis, and Donald Trump is the architect of this crisis,鈥 Harris said. 鈥淯nderstand what a law like this means: Doctors have to wait until the patient is at death鈥檚 door before they take action. 鈥 You鈥檙e saying that good policy, logical policy, moral policy, humane policy is about saying that a health care provider will only start providing that care when you鈥檙e about to die?鈥

Trump has not commented on the deaths. He has repeatedly said this year that abortion access should be left to the states. He has dismissed the idea of a federal abortion ban, but during, he refused to say whether he would veto such legislation.

At a recent聽, Trump addressed 鈥渙ur great women鈥 (a聽聽among), saying, 鈥測ou will no longer be thinking about abortion, because it is now where it always had to be, with the states, and with the vote of the people.鈥

Abortion was a driving concern in this spring鈥檚 qualifying process for Georgia鈥檚 2024 legislative elections 鈥斅爐he first opportunity for aspiring state lawmakers to jump on the ballot in response to their state鈥檚 severe abortion restrictions.

Melita Easters, the executive director and founding chair of Georgia WIN List, which endorses Democratic women who support abortion rights, was already calling this year鈥檚 general election 鈥淩oevember鈥 back when President Joe Biden was still the party鈥檚 presumptive nominee.

But Easters told States Newsroom that having Harris on the ticket instead has elevated the issue of reproductive freedom even more and 鈥渉as breathed new life into down-ballot campaigns.鈥 Easters said she is especially encouraged after a Democratic state House candidate in Alabama who ran on abortion rights聽聽seat during a special election in March.

Michigan Democrats continue betting on abortion after 2022 successes

Michigan was one of the earliest states post-Dobbs to show that abortion rights could be a strong election-winning issue.

Months after the Supreme Court鈥檚 ruling, Michiganders overwhelmingly聽聽to protect abortion rights in the state constitution; reelected Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who vowed to prioritize reproductive freedom; and voted for Democratic majorities in both chambers, giving the party a legislative trifecta for the first time in 40 years. In 2023, the legislature repealed a聽聽that was still on the books and passed the聽, expanding abortion access in the state.

This year, state and national abortion-rights groups have campaigned in聽聽across Michigan, warning that a federal ban would supersede the state鈥檚 protections.

State judicial races, meanwhile, have attracted millions of dollars, as they could聽聽of the Michigan Supreme Court. Democrats secured a slim 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court in 2020 after Republican-nominated justices controlled the court for most of the last few decades.

Nevada reproductive rights activists hope ballot initiative improves turnout

In Nevada, abortion remains legal through 24 weeks and beyond for specific health reasons. In 2023, the state鈥檚 Democratic-led legislature聽聽shielding patients and providers from out-of-state investigations related to abortion care; it was signed by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.

Seeking to cement these rights in the state constitution, reproductive health advocates聽, which they hope will drive voter turnout that would affect the presidential and down-ballot races. Constitutional amendments proposed through an initiative petition must be passed by voters twice, so if voters approve Question 6 in November, they will have to approve it again in 2026.

In the state鈥檚聽race, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen currently edges Republican Sam Brown, who has had inconsistent positions on abortion and reproductive rights but.

National anti-abortion groups聽听补苍诲听聽have notably not focused on Nevada in their campaign strategies.

Growing Latinx voting bloc in North Carolina

In North Carolina many Democrats are campaigning in opposition to a 12-week abortion ban that the Republican-majority legislature passed last year after聽.

In a high-profile race for governor, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein faces Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has聽聽he believes 鈥渢here is no compromise on abortion,鈥 according to NC Newsline. The lieutenant governor is聽聽from the race over comments made on a pornography website years ago, and Stein has started racking up endorsements from聽.

Iliana Santillan, a political organizer who supports abortion rights, has focused on mobilizing Latinos, a growing voting bloc in the state. The executive director of progressive nonprofit El Pueblo and its political sister group La Fuerza NC told States Newsroom she鈥檚 talked to many young women motivated to secure their own reproductive rights, including her college-age daughter. She said the Latinx community faces additional reproductive care barriers such as language and transportation, with immigrants in the country without legal authorization scared to cross state lines without a driver鈥檚 license.

Santillan also said there鈥檚 a misconception that all Latinos are against abortion because they鈥檙e Catholic, when in reality opposition to abortion skews among older voters.

鈥淲ith older folks, the messaging that we鈥檝e tested that has worked is: 鈥榃e don鈥檛 want politicians to have a say in what we do with our bodies,鈥欌 Santillan said.

Motivated voters in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the largest swing state and considered essential to win the White House.

In a poll conducted聽by Spotlight PA and MassINC Polling Group, abortion ranked as the fifth most-important concern in the presidential race for likely voters, with 49% naming it as among their top issues.

The issue is far more important to Democrats, however, with 85% calling it a top issue compared with 17% of Republicans. Among those who aren鈥檛 registered with either major party, 49% called it a top issue.

The Dobbs decision ended federal abortion rights and spurred voters to the polls in 2022, sending enough Democrats to the Pennsylvania House to flip it blue, says Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. (Pennsylvania Capital-Star)

In 2022, voters surprised pundits by sending enough Democrats to the state House to flip it blue. Voters were responding to the Dobbs decision, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro聽at a recent Harris campaign event.

Shapiro also won in 2022, and so far his administration has supported over-the-counter birth control pills and聽聽with a network of anti-abortion counseling centers. He said his administration聽a current state law that prohibits state Medicaid funding from being used for abortions.

Abortion isn鈥檛 protected under Pennsylvania鈥檚 state constitution, but it remains legal up to 24 weeks鈥 gestation, and clinics there have seen an聽.

Wisconsin abortion services resume

After more than a year without abortion access, reproductive health clinics in Wisconsin聽聽in September 2023, shortly after a judge ruled that the 1849 state law that had widely been interpreted as an abortion ban applied to feticide and not abortion. A state Supreme Court race a few months earlier saw Justice Janet Protasiewicz聽聽after campaigning on reproductive freedom.

Seven months later when Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher announced his resignation, Lyerly聽, running as the only Democrat in the 8th District. She now faces businessman聽. Although in the past it was considered a聽, it has leaned conservative in recent election cycles. With the redrawn maps and national support, Lyerly said it鈥檚 a competitive race.

鈥淲e have the potential to really fix, not just reproductive health care, but health care,鈥 Lyerly told States Newsroom. 鈥淏ring the stories of our patients forward and help our colleagues understand, build those coalitions and help to gain consensus that鈥檚 going to drive forward health care reform in this country.鈥

奥颈别诲鈥檚听聽does not mention abortion or his policy proposals related to health care, though the words 鈥淭rump-endorsed鈥 appear prominently and abundantly throughout the site. Wied hasn鈥檛 said much about the issue beyond it should be a聽, but the two are scheduled聽聽this Friday night. His campaign declined an interview.

Currently the. If Lyerly wins in November, she would not only change that (potentially alongside Minnesota Sen. Kelly聽) but also could help flip party control in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Most Wisconsin voters oppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability, according to a poll this year by the University of Maryland鈥檚 Program for Public Consultation.

Patricia McFarland, 76, knows what it鈥檚 like to live without abortion access. For more than 50 years, the retired college teacher kept her pre-Roe abortion a secret, having grown up in a conservative Irish Catholic family like many of her suburban Milwaukee neighbors.

McFarland told States Newsroom she has been politically active most of her life, but the Dobbs ruling dredged up the physical and emotional trauma from the illegal procedure she had alone in Mexico City. Now, McFarland rarely leaves home without her 鈥淩oe Roe Roe Your Vote鈥 button, engaging anyone who will talk to her about the dangers of criminalizing pregnancy.

The mother and grandmother said she鈥檚 been canvassing and doing informational sessions with her activist group the PERSISTers, as well as the League of Women Voters. As she has warned fellow Wisconsities about the federal power over their reproductive freedom, she said the enthusiasm for abortion rights in her state is palpable.

鈥淔or women my age,鈥 McFarland said, 鈥渨e don鈥檛 want our grandchildren to lose their ability to decide when to become a mother.鈥

Georgia Recorder鈥檚 Jill Nolin contributed to this report.

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Sofia Resnick
Sofia Resnick

Sofia Resnick is a national reproductive rights reporter for States Newsroom, based in Washington, D.C. She has reported on reproductive-health politics and justice issues for more than a decade.

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