You might think that red states like Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana 鈥� states that helped put Donald Trump back in the White House 鈥� might be rewarded by the new administration.
But data suggests otherwise.
In fact, numbers say it may well be that many red states will take the biggest hits from the budget-slashing taking place under President Trump and as well as by the imposition of tariffs on goods coming into their states.
Here鈥檚 why:
There are two kinds of states in this country in terms of their relationship with the federal government 鈥� 鈥渄onor states鈥� and 鈥渢aker states.鈥�
Donor states are those which send more money to Washington than they receive from the federal government.
Taker states do just the opposite. They send less money to Washington in taxes and fees than they get back from the federal government. That's because in general, these states have more people who are poor or elderly and their need for federal help is much greater.
Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana are all taker states, according to the latest census data compiled by USAFacts, a nonprofit organization that aggregates data from federal, state, and local governments.
USAFacts used 2021 figures , updating them in August 2024.
All three states depend on the federal government for a large portion of their state budgets.
In fact, Kentucky is among the top five in the country on that score, receiving 30.1% of its budget from federal funding. Only Montana and New Mexico are higher. Indiana received 25.7% of its budget from Washington, while Ohio took in 21% from the federal government.
California, a blue state and one that sends the most money to Washington depends far less on the government in D.C. to fund its state government at 14.5%.
What does the federal money coming into the states do?
The vast majority of it is made up of Medicaid and CHIP (Children鈥檚 Health Insurance Program) 鈥� both of which are likely targets of the White House budget-slashing.
The dollars coming into the states from Washington also help pay for education, social services, infrastructure, and public safety.
Federal aid to the states amounts to $3,729 in Ohio, $3,825 in Indiana, and a whopping $4,850 in Kentucky for every man, woman, and child in those states.
The tariffs proposed by the Trump administration could hit states like Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana hard.
How states could feel the effects
One example: Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on potash coming in from Canada, the country that provides American farmers with 85% of the potash they need to fertilize their fields.
Farmers in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky are bracing for the potential impact of a tariff on Canadian potash. It could be devastating for family farms.
鈥淲hat most people don鈥檛 realize is that most of the federal government is outside of Washington, D.C.,鈥� said Anne Whitsell, a professor of political science at Miami University.
Trump won the electoral votes of Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana last fall with ease; and, clearly, on the first month of his second presidency.
But Whitesell and many others who watch American politics closely believe there is huge potential for 鈥渂uyer鈥檚 remorse鈥� to set in as they see the effects of tariffs and whole departments of the federal government being eliminated.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a real question over whether voters know what the impact of all this could be on their lives,鈥欌�� Whitesell said. 鈥淲hen they see it, though, many of those who voted for Trump are not going to like what they see.鈥�
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